Nasdaq Seeks SEC Approval to Launch Prediction Market Products

Nasdaq has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to list binary, prediction-market-style options tied to the Nasdaq 100 index, according to a regulatory filing reported by Reuters.

The proposed contracts, described as “Outcome-Related Options,” would be cash-settled and priced between $0.01 and $1. Each contract would pay $1 if a specified outcome is met at expiration and expire worthless if it is not, mirroring the structure commonly used by retail prediction markets.

The filing covers contracts linked to both the Nasdaq 100 Index and the smaller Nasdaq 100 Micro Index. Nasdaq said the products are designed to provide a simplified way for investors to take positions on clearly defined market outcomes.

If approved, the instruments would fall under SEC oversight, distinguishing them from many existing event contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The regulatory classification underscores a broader jurisdictional divide as U.S. authorities evaluate how prediction-style markets should be supervised.

Nasdaq’s move represents one of the clearest signals yet that major exchange operators are seeking to integrate prediction-based structures into traditional securities markets. Interest in event contracts expanded sharply during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, when platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket saw elevated trading activity tied to political and economic outcomes.

The contracts proposed by Nasdaq would function as all-or-nothing instruments, allowing traders to express directional views in a defined risk format. Because pricing is capped between zero and one dollar, the structure makes the maximum gain and loss explicit at the time of purchase.

The proposal also arrives as other exchange groups explore similar offerings. Reuters reported that rival operators are preparing their own binary-style contracts, while derivatives exchanges have examined partnerships and new listings tied to event-based frameworks.

Regulatory scrutiny around prediction markets has intensified in recent months, particularly concerning contracts linked to politically sensitive events. The CFTC is advancing rulemaking aimed at clarifying its authority over certain categories of event contracts, while SEC officials have indicated that some products may fall squarely within securities law.

Nasdaq did not disclose a timeline for potential launch, which would depend on SEC approval of the filing. Should the regulator sign off, the exchange would become one of the first major U.S. equity venues to formally incorporate prediction-style mechanics into its listed options suite.